Monday Open: $1,637.47
Weekly High: $1,638.27
Weekly Low: $1,572.04
Friday Close: $1,578.35
Gold has been down this week, culminating in a rare three-month long downward trend that reached its first bottom on Tuesday, and then dropped to gold’s lowest point since March on Friday. February 28th was the last high point for gold, reaching $1,795 an ounce.
To put in perspective how rare a three-month downward spiral is, since 1957 there have only been 65 occurrences in 661 three-month periods, or only 9.8% of that time period.
A few key factors played into this week’s nosedive, notably a stronger U.S. dollar, rising crude oil prices and continuing uncertainty about Europe’s debt crisis spurred by this past weekend’s political elections.
Gold has been traditionally a safety fund, especially amidst tumultuous world economies and fluctuating paper money, but investors this week are beginning to question gold’s stability. As risk assets such as equities, industrial metals and oil dropped this week, gold bullion saw a significant sell-off as investors were forced to sell lower in order to cover losses in other sectors.
Many are wondering how long this fall in gold spot prices will last, but to put it in perspective, gold is still in an 11-year bull market.
Peter Grant, an economist for USAGOLD, reminds us that, for gold, “the underlying trend remains unquestionably bullish, as the fundamentals that drove gold from $300 an ounce to more than $1900 an ounce are still very much in place.”
Grant remarked on the trend in the gold market seen in the past decade, which is this: when paper markets and inflation rise, as they are doing in Europe and the U.S. this week, gold markets tend to fall, but once gold prices reach a relatively low point, physical gold investors start picking it back up again.
Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian Donald Trump-type and the author of The Cold, Hard Truth, stated this week, “I like gold because it is a stabilizer, it is an insurance policy.”
O’Leary is a prominent investor, venture capitalist and high net worth individual, and even though he revealed that he usually only invests in stocks that pay a dividend, he makes an exception for gold because it is a safety net. Still, he warns not to invest more than 20% in any one stock, and preferably, no more than 5%, even if it is a hedge like gold.
Another millionaire with a directly opposite perspective, Warren Buffett, also spoke about his take on gold. Agreeing that paper money is terrifying to world economies, but disagreeing that gold is the answer, he instead recommends investing in productive human resources that will grow and add value to society.
Buffet said, “If you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it at hundred years, you can go to it every day and you could coo to it and fondle it and a hundred years from now, you’ll have one ounce of gold and it won’t have done anything for you in between. You buy 100 acres of farm land and it will produce for you every year.”
Still, for those who are watching the gold market, as long as gold spot prices don’t drop below $1,500, current investors have no reason to even begin to be worried, reassures Jim Wyckoff of Kitco. Wyckoff echoes Grant’s assured stance that gold prices tend to operate in a cyclical way, and that prices will probably rally back, set new highs and continue onward.
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