Monday Open: $1,619.10
Weekly High: $1,639.70
Weekly Low: $1,566.50
Friday Close: $1,593.90
Last week closed with gold spiking to a surprising high, surging 4.3% after weak U.S. economic data rolled in, including low employment rates and non-farm payroll reports. Last Friday, gold saw the biggest one-day increase in three years, prompting some investors to cash in those gains. The price of gold has been volatile the entire year so far, so when those investors fled the market, Monday opened with a slight pause as many wondered whether U.S. economic policy might ease in response to the negative economic news.
The price throughout the week remained fairly steady up until Thursday. India is the world’s largest importer of gold, and as Friday saw the rupee fall to an all-time low in relation to the dollar, Indian gold investors started selling when the price was high.
Yet, as the economic crisis in Europe continued to worry investors and weak U.S. data started filtering in, there was an equal balance of “safe haven” investing in gold. The pause occurred partly because much speculation abounded about whether the Federal Reserve would finally ease monetary policy.
Wednesday saw gold hit a one-month high after the European Central Bank concluded it would not change interest rates from a record low 1%. China led an unexpected increase in gold prices as the central government announced a 0.25% drop in interest rates to stimulate the economy.
Also, gold rallied as investors anticipated Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks the following morning. Many expected stimulus action, especially since Fed vice chair Janet Yellen gave the impression policy might change to accommodate the latest downfall.
As per usual when Bernanke is expected to give an address, speculation arose about whether he would encourage more liberal spending due to a weak U.S. dollar. If he were to encourage more printed money and looser interest rates, gold would feel significantly safer to investors keeping a close eye on the relationship between government money and the more tangible yellow metal. It’s still not entirely clear this year to most investors whether gold should be viewed as a risky asset or a secure holding ground.
Prices fell dramatically Thursday after the morning rolled around and Bernanke did not commit to third quarter economic easing. Expectations that he might allude to some intended change in policy fell short after an ambiguous address, in which he attributed weak employment data to seasonal factors and gave few clues as to future plans.
“Gold bulls were very disappointed by the Bernanke testimony yesterday,” said Phillip Futures investment analyst Lynnette Tan on Thursday.
And the market felt it, as Thursday’s prices experienced a drop of 1.3%. Bernanke’s non-commitment was a curveball for many; he did say that he would be prepared to act on economic stimulus when it becomes necessary, but took no action at this point, leaving gold in a state of limbo, but not treacherously far away from last Friday’s jump.
This week closed with about an even split of anticipation for next week, according to Kitco’s weekly poll. About half of those polled expect bullish prices ahead for gold, while the other half anticipates a bear market or is unsure.
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