Dec 14

Price of Gold Weekly Recap – December 10-14, 2012

Monday Open: $1,711.90
Weekly High: $1,722.00
Weekly Low: $1,692.90
Friday Close: $1,696.30

The big news in gold trading this week was the two-day FOMC conference, economic reports for major world economies, and an automatic trading sell-off in Asian trading. The FOMC conference spiked prices on Wednesday, then sell-off sprees dropped the price for almost no reason on Thursday. Speculation abounds about whether gold has reached its limit as we head into 2013.

Monday was relatively quiet, and not much trading occurred after President Obama and House Speaker Boehner met face to face on Sunday to discuss the fiscal cliff crisis. Traders in all sectors are worried what will or won’t happen before the end of the year, and the fiscal cliff still tends to bring all commodities sectors down, but nothing new brought any light to the situation. The OECD released a report that projected that economies of the U.S., the U.K and China will grow over 2013, but that those of the European Union, Japan and Canada are expected to contract. If world economies are bouncing back, this could be a bearish factor for gold.

Yet, gold responded positively to the news from Tuesday and Wednesday’s FOMC meetings that the Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates low for approximately the next three years, or until unemployment reaches 6.5%.  The meeting discussed the end of “Operation Twist,” and the beginning of a new bond-buying program, which will entail buying $45 billion of Treasury bonds. The price of gold rose almost $9 on Wednesday.

Yet, Thursday saw some unexpected drops from that high, as Asian trading enacted some automatic sell-stops, which forces selling once a price reaches a certain point. This same trend happened a few weeks ago, for no logical reason, adding an unpredictable factor to gold trading.

The European Union, meanwhile, reached an agreement to appoint a single bank supervisor and EU banking union, which will be a positive sign for their economic recovery. Friday stayed at the low end of the sell-off range to close the week slightly below $1,700.

Gold is undoubtedly a volatile investment at this point in time, and some predict bearish futures for gold, citing that the precious metal is nearing the end of its decade-long streak, but others retain that with the world’s biggest economies still in flux and in the midst of inflation, gold is still a safe hedge fund. Goldman Sachs predicted the end of the gold, while Morgan Stanley credited gold as the “best commodity for 2013.”

Oct 19

Price of Gold Weekly Recap – October 15-19, 2012

Monday Open: $1,737.30
Weekly High: $1,752.20
Weekly Low: $1,718.00
Friday Close: $1,720.80

Gold opened on a one-month low this week, rallied upwards, then shot back down to close bearishly on a newer one-month low due to global economic pressures. There are a few global factors that contributed to the spikes this week, but as a whole gold is still operating at roughly $200 higher than the $1,500-$1,550 range that dominated most of the first half of 2012.

In a weak global economy, gold acts as a hedge fund and has been on the upswing for the past four years, largely due to economic restructuring of major economic states, not least of which has been the U.S. Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policies. Monday, however, China was on the forefront of traders’ minds, and gold dipped down from the weekend because data revealed that China, whose growth has been slow over the year, though still significantly ahead of the U.S., might not be considering economic restructuring if they can help it. Gold has risen in the past few months in large part due to America and Europe’s monetary loosening, and the same has been expected for China, but September data showed that China’s inflation rate dropped from 2% to 1.9% and their imports grew by 2.4%. This means uncertain trading for gold.

“The bottom line is China’s in this kind of gray area where…things aren’t as good as people want them to be but they’re not bad enough to continue to just throw money at the market,” Matt Zeman of Kingsview Financial said.

Tuesday, gold responded well after the U.S. released positive news on consumer price data, confirming that there is no current threat of significant inflation. If inflation were to appear on the horizon, the Federal Reserve may change their policies to curb price hikes, which would negatively affect gold. Without immediate fear of inflation, the Fed can continue its trend of monetary easing. The dollar also slipped a little compared to other currencies.

However, Wednesday reports on U.S. housing data served to balance out any permanent feeling of comfort regarding the dollar. Housing data was positive, implying that if that trend continues, the Fed may start to slow down their stimulus plans. Spain also received some important news; the struggling country’s credit rating was left unchanged rather than downgraded, and there is still talk of Spain requesting a bailout. Germany also joined the conversation by announcing a lower economic growth rate for 2013 than previously anticipated.

Gold traders anticipated Thursday as results from China’s third-quarter gross domestic product would be released and the European summit would begin. Data from China on Thursday confirmed the foreshadowing from Monday that China may not be as strongly considering economic boosting, since the outlook is good for economic growth.

Friday dropped gold back down below the initial trading point on Monday to a fresh one-month low. The dollar was trading higher on Friday, and the European summit meeting ended, revealing no news from Spain that the country would be asking for a bailout now. Economic uncertainties in all parts of the world contributed to an overall precarious feeling for unconvinced gold traders, causing many to flee the market by the end of the week.

Frank McGhee, precious metals trader of Integrated Brokerage Services LLC, put it this way: “People who rushed in for QE expecting to get a significant lift are getting out of the market.  The longer we don’t make a new high, the more people start getting nervous about where gold is trading.”

This week experienced a 2% drop in gold, the largest weekly decline in four months.

With noncommittal leaders in Spain, a U.S. election on the horizon, a stronger Chinese economy and the season for gold buying in India approaching, yet with a weak rupee, gold seems to be caught once again in a trading limbo. However, once the price of gold breaks $1,800, interest in this precious metal will surely return, as many investors see the yellow metal continuing to perform well in the long-term.